OK, so now we have a counterpoint to "The Long Tail" from a few years ago. While I read and bought in to the premise that the Internet was helping to free everyone to explore and engage with the vast catalogs available thanks to digital distribution we now have a new report to consider.
Anita Elberse analyzed data for music downloads and movie rentals and showed that while the long tail was indeed getting longer it wasn’t really getting fatter. In fact her analysis showed that the blockbusters were holding or gaining in their share.
Point: In 2006, "The Long Tail" made a splash arguing that the Internet, with its expansive shelf space, would mean a smaller role for mega-hit products and a bigger one for also-rans.
Counterpoint: Now, a Harvard professor has published a study suggesting the Web is only cementing the prominence of a small number of cultural favorites.
At Issue: The basics of consumer behavior. Do we want infinite choice, or do we prefer to pick up on the likes and dislikes of others in forming our own tastes?
Chris Anderson has already responded on his blog and still sees a difference despite agreeing with her numbers. Basically he feels it comes down to how you define the "head" and "tail".
My take is that while the tail is getting longer I see the whole graph getting deeper thanks to the Internet, so you can look at it two ways. The blockbuster hits get even more now with digital distribution but so does the tail as everyone is now able to uncover media that otherwise wouldn’t be found. While we may not have changed any paradigms with the Internet we have definitely made consumption easier.
1 comment for this entry ↓
1 Kenny Bunch // Jul 2, 2008 at 2:06 pm
I think you hit 2 prime points:
- ease of consumption
- growing choice.
Long tail is about increased pools of content. Some thoughts on the theory is that it will cut into viewing of more mainstream content as you viewers start to spend time in the tail. However, we haven’t even seen all the viewers come to the space yet, so viewers moving their views from popular to the tail isn’t as apparent yet.
Consumption is growing, which means views are growing. People that may not have typically consumed media at times will now because it is now more accessible to them. The potential audience hasn’t matured, it’s still in constant growth.
We may never see the “apparent” move over to the tail, because as consumption grows, viewers are in the tail and in the head. When it finally levels out, consumption in both places may also be stable where users aren’t moving to the tail, because they are already going to it.
When this leveling will occur, who knows because new points of consumption are occurrnig rapidly.
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